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Contemporary South Asia

Understanding South Asia: A Geopolitical Overview

Introduction: South Asia is a region marked by a complex interplay of rivalry and goodwill, hope and despair, mutual suspicion, and trust. Comprising countries like Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, South Asia boasts linguistic, social, and cultural distinctiveness largely influenced by the mighty Himalayas in the north and the surrounding Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal.

Geographical Boundaries and Inclusions:

Natural Insularity: The region’s natural insularity, defined by the Himalayas, Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, and Bay of Bengal, contributes to the distinct identity of South Asia.
Inclusion of Afghanistan and Myanmar: While Afghanistan and Myanmar are sometimes discussed in the context of South Asia, China is an influential player but not considered part of the region.

Political Systems in South Asia:

Diversity in Political Systems: The political landscape in South Asia varies significantly, with Sri Lanka and India successfully operating democratic systems since their independence.
Challenges and Limitations: India and Sri Lanka, despite their democratic success, face challenges, emphasizing the complexities within the region.

Evolution of Democracy:

India and Sri Lanka’s Democratic Continuity: Both India and Sri Lanka have maintained democratic systems since their independence from British rule, notwithstanding inherent limitations.
Pakistan and Bangladesh’s Experience: Pakistan and Bangladesh have experienced periods of both civilian and military rule, with Bangladesh evolving into a democracy in the post-Cold War era.
Nepal’s Transition: Nepal transitioned from a constitutional monarchy to a democratic republic in 2008, reflecting the changing dynamics in the region.

Democratic Aspirations in Smaller Nations:

Bhutan’s Constitutional Monarchy: Bhutan transformed into a constitutional monarchy in 2008, embracing multi-party democracy under the leadership of the king.
Democratic Shift in the Maldives: The Maldives shifted from a Sultanate to a republic in 1968 and adopted a multi-party system in 2005, with the Maldivian Democratic Party dominating politics.

Widespread Support for Democracy:

Regional Support for Democracy: Despite mixed democratic records, a survey indicates widespread support for democracy in the region’s five major countries.
Democratic Aspiration Among Citizens: Ordinary citizens, irrespective of economic status and religious affiliation, express a positive view of democracy, preferring it over other forms of government.

Global Impact of South Asian Democracy:

Expanding Global Imagination: The South Asian experience challenges the notion that democracy thrives only in prosperous countries, expanding the global understanding and support for democratic principles.

Examining Democracy Across Four Big South Asian Countries:

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal: In-depth analysis of the democratic experience in each of these four major South Asian countries, shedding light on their unique political trajectories.

In exploring the multifaceted landscape of South Asia, understanding the region’s geopolitical dynamics and democratic evolution is essential for a comprehensive perspective.

Military and Democracy in Pakistan: A Historical Overview

Introduction: The complex relationship between the military and democracy in Pakistan has witnessed several transitions and challenges, shaping the nation’s political landscape over the years.

Early Years and Military Takeovers:

General Ayub Khan’s Administration: After Pakistan’s first constitution, General Ayub Khan assumed power, but popular dissatisfaction led to his resignation.
Yahya Khan and Bangladesh Crisis: General Yahya Khan’s military rule saw the Bangladesh crisis, resulting in East Pakistan breaking away and becoming Bangladesh in 1971.

Ebb and Flow of Democracy:

Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s Elected Government: From 1971 to 1977, an elected government led by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto came to power.
General Ziaul-Haq’s Coup (1977): General Ziaul-Haq removed the Bhutto government in 1977, marking a shift from democracy to military rule.
Benazir Bhutto’s Democratic Resurgence (1988): Pro-democracy movements led to the establishment of an elected government in 1988 under Benazir Bhutto.

Interplay of Military Rule and Elections:

Army Interventions (1999): The military intervened again in 1999, removing Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
General Pervez Musharraf’s Presidency (2001): General Musharraf, after a coup, got elected as President in 2001.
Mixed Democratic Phases: Periodic elections under military rule aimed to project a democratic image.

Challenges to Democracy in Pakistan:

Social Dominance and Political Instability: The influence of the military, clergy, and landowning aristocracy contributed to frequent overthrows of elected governments.
Conflict with India: Pakistan’s conflict with India strengthened pro-military groups, justifying military rule as a protector of national security.

International Factors:

Lack of Genuine International Support: Limited international support for democratic rule in Pakistan encouraged military dominance.
Western Influence: The United States and other Western nations historically supported military regimes, perceiving them as protectors against global Islamic terrorism.

Pro-Democracy Sentiment:

Civil Society and Press: Despite challenges, a pro-democracy sentiment exists in Pakistan, evidenced by a courageous and free press and a robust human rights movement.
Democratic Leaders Since 2008: Democratically elected leaders have governed Pakistan since 2008.

Democracy in Bangladesh: From Struggle to Stability

Background: Bangladesh, formerly part of Pakistan, experienced cultural and linguistic challenges leading to demands for autonomy and fair representation.

Sheikh Mujib’s Struggle for Autonomy:

Post-Partition Protests: Resentment against West Pakistani dominance led to protests against the unfair treatment of Bengali culture and language.
Demand for Autonomy: Sheikh Mujib-ur Rahman led the demand for autonomy in the eastern region.

1971 Independence and Democratic Aspirations:

Awami League’s Election Victory (1970): In the 1970 elections, Awami League won in East Pakistan, but the West Pakistani leadership refused to convene the assembly.
Military Suppression and Independence: General Yahya Khan’s military rule suppressed Bengali movement, leading to a war with India in 1971, resulting in the creation of Bangladesh.

Post-Independence Democratic Challenges:

Secular Democratic Beginnings: Bangladesh drafted a constitution embracing secularism, democracy, and socialism.
Sheikh Mujib’s Amendments: Amendments in 1975 shifted from parliamentary to presidential government, leading to conflicts. Sheikh Mujib’s assassination in 1975 further destabilized the political scenario.

Military Takeovers and Democratic Resurgence:

Ziaur Rahman’s Regime (1979): Ziaur Rahman formed the Bangladesh National Party, but his regime was marked by conflicts and tensions.
Lt Gen H. M. Ershad’s Rule: Another military takeover followed, leading to mass protests and limited political activity.

Restoration of Democracy:

People’s Uprising (1990): Mass protests forced Ershad to allow political activity, and elections were held in 1991.
Post-1991 Multi-Party Democracy: Since 1991, Bangladesh has experienced stable representative democracy based on multi-party elections.

Understanding the historical trajectories of military and democratic dynamics in Pakistan and Bangladesh provides insights into the challenges and resilience of democratic governance in South Asia.

Monarchy and Democracy in Nepal: A Political Evolution

Historical Background: Nepal, once a Hindu kingdom, transitioned to a constitutional monarchy, where political parties and the public sought a more open and responsive government. However, the monarchy, with military support, maintained control and limited democratic expansion.

Struggles for Democracy:

Pro-democracy Movement (1990): Strong pro-democracy movements led to the king accepting the demand for a new democratic constitution in 1990.
Maoist Influence (1990s): The 1990s saw the rise of Maoists, advocating armed insurrection against the monarchy, leading to a violent conflict with the king’s forces.

Democratic Setbacks:

King’s Actions (2002): In 2002, the king abolished the parliament and dismissed the government, ending even the limited democracy in Nepal.
People’s Uprising (2006): Massive pro-democracy protests in April 2006 forced the king to restore the dissolved House of Representatives.

Complete Transition to Democracy:

Constitutional Assembly (2008): Nepal formed a constituent assembly in 2008 to draft a new constitution, completing its transition to a democratic republic.
Maoist Involvement: The Maoists suspended armed struggle, aiming for social and economic restructuring in the new constitution.

Ethnic Conflict and Democracy in Sri Lanka: Challenges Beyond Democracy

Democracy Amidst Ethnic Conflict: Sri Lanka retained democracy since independence but faced a significant challenge from ethnic conflict, particularly with the Tamil minority demanding secession.

Dominance of Sinhala Majority:

Sinhala Dominance: Politics in post-independence Sri Lanka was dominated by the majority Sinhala community, leading to hostility towards Tamil concerns.
Tamil Nationalism (1983): Neglect of Tamil concerns fueled militant Tamil nationalism, leading to the formation of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in 1983.

Indian Involvement and Resolution:

Indian Intervention (1987): In 1987, India directly intervened in the Sri Lankan Tamil question, signing an accord and sending troops, leading to conflicts with both the LTTE and Sri Lankans.
Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF): The IPKF pulled out in 1989 without achieving its objective.

Resolution and Post-Conflict Progress:

LTTE Defeated (2009): The armed conflict ended in 2009 as the LTTE was vanquished.
Economic Growth and Democracy: Despite conflict, Sri Lanka experienced economic growth and maintained a democratic political system.

India-Pakistan Conflicts: Complex Dynamics Beyond Borders

Enduring Conflict over Kashmir: The India-Pakistan conflict, primarily over Kashmir, has persisted since the partition, marked by wars in 1947-48, 1965, and the decisive 1971 war. The Kashmir issue remains unsettled.

Strategic and Nuclear Dimensions:

Siachen Glacier and Arms Race: Strategic issues like control of the Siachen glacier and an arms race, including nuclear weapons, characterized the conflict in the 1990s.
Nuclear Tests (1998): Both countries conducted nuclear tests in 1998, leading to a mutual decline in the possibility of direct full-scale war.

Persistent Tensions and Suspicions:

Low-Key Violence and Proxy Warfare: India accuses Pakistan of supporting low-key violence, aiding militants in Kashmir and the northeast, while Pakistan blames India for interference in Sindh and Balochistan.
River Water Sharing and Border Disputes: Disputes persist over river water sharing and the demarcation line in Sir Creek, reflecting underlying suspicions between the two nations.

International Mediation and Negotiations:

Indus Waters Treaty (1960): Mediated by the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 has survived despite various conflicts.
Ongoing Negotiations: India and Pakistan engage in negotiations over multiple issues, emphasizing diplomatic efforts to address conflicts.

In navigating the complex dynamics of monarchy, democracy, and international conflicts in Nepal, Sri Lanka, and the India-Pakistan region, the historical evolution and ongoing negotiations underscore the intricate challenges faced by these South Asian nations.

India and its Neighbours: Dynamics and Challenges

India-Bangladesh Relations:

Differences: India and Bangladesh have faced differences over Ganga and Brahmaputra river waters, illegal immigration, anti-Indian Islamic fundamentalist groups, and trade issues.
Cooperation: Despite differences, economic relations have improved, and cooperation exists in disaster management, environmental issues, and enclave exchanges.

India-Nepal Relations:

Special Relationship: India and Nepal share a unique relationship with citizens allowed to travel and work without visas. Trade-related disputes and concerns about Indian interference have arisen, but overall, the ties are stable.
Ongoing Cooperation: Trade, scientific cooperation, shared natural resources, and joint projects in electricity generation and water management contribute to bilateral ties.

India-Sri Lanka Relations:

Ethnic Conflict: India has been involved in conflicts over ethnic issues in Sri Lanka. After military intervention in 1987, India prefers a policy of disengagement.
Economic Ties: A free trade agreement and Indian aid in post-tsunami reconstruction have strengthened economic relations between India and Sri Lanka.

India-Bhutan and India-Maldives Relations:

Special Ties with Bhutan: India and Bhutan share a special relationship with cooperation in hydroelectric projects. Bhutan’s efforts to control guerrillas have benefited India.
Warm Relations with Maldives: India’s swift response to a 1988 invasion and contributions to economic development, tourism, and fisheries maintain warm ties with the Maldives.

Regional Conflicts and India’s Role:

Geopolitical Challenges: India’s size and power lead to suspicions from smaller neighbors. India, in turn, often feels exploited. Conflicts arise due to political instability and concerns about regional dominance.
Intra-regional Conflicts: Disagreements between Nepal-Bhutan and Bangladesh-Myanmar have also occurred, but major conflicts are primarily between India and its neighbors.

South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC):

Cooperative Efforts: SAARC, initiated in 1985, aims for regional cooperation. The South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) was signed in 2004 to promote a free trade zone.
Challenges: Political differences have limited SAARC’s success, with concerns about India’s influence and market access hindering cooperation.

India-Pakistan Relations:

Enduring Conflicts: Despite conflicts, India and Pakistan have made efforts to manage tensions. Confidence-building measures, people-to-people initiatives, and increased trade have been undertaken.

International Influences:

China’s Role: Sino-Indian relations have improved, but China’s strategic partnership with Pakistan remains a concern.
US Involvement: Post-Cold War, the US increased involvement in South Asia. Good relations with India and Pakistan make the US a moderator in their affairs.

Future Prospects:

Regional Evolution: South Asia’s future, as a conflict-prone zone or a region with common cultural features and trade interests, depends on the collaboration of regional governments and people rather than external powers.